“because the world is nuts”
“Because the World is Nuts!”
Welcome to the 16th 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter!
I wrote the info below and never sent it out, because I found it interesting but figured few people would.
But, now TSLA has this order, apparently, from car hire firm Hertz, it made me think about how genuine this might be.
Of course, the Streets reaction was incredibly bullish. In fact according to someone more clued in that I, these stats show how relatively bullish this news was seen.
Massive right? Ok, but now what happens? Is it correct that the near bankrupt car rental industry can be such a strong customer that these orders are genuine? Do we know over what period they might be scheduled? Also I thought car rental companies usually lease from the manufacturers, it does not make sense to own the cars outright.
I am no expert on this area at all, but I do remember things, and so I wished to share this analysis from a year ago, and also share the articles from the FT that refer to it, just so that you can do your own research on this, and feel free to write to me with your views about it.
Surely at these price levels the risk of any doubt or scaling back of this vehicle order will surely see lower prices, which of course would just be another opportunity to buy the dip…right?
Please see my original writings below,
https://www.ft.com/content/69accf15-1ab7-426b-aadc-6f594d24dd65 (this link was not in the original draft but is very relevant to the situation)
Europcar CDS default, valued at Zero after auction.
I heard about Europcar a few weeks ago. I was listening to a radio interview with the Europcar CEO about how wonderful she is, and how and why the equally wonderful French Government is supporting large business, which then led to support for small business.
Key thing is, what started the French Govt support? The Europcar CEO is a woman, she is friends since many years with the woman who is the French Minister for Business or Finance, one or the other I forget the details.
The CEO realised very quickly what damage the lack of tourism would do to her business, so she spoke with the French Minister, and between them they concocted massive grants and loans to big French businesses, saving jobs was the justification for this action.
There is now so much debt in French business that there were no buyers for the Europcar CDS.
This event, of no demand for the CDS of Europcar, is finally the reality hitting home. For years “nothing matters anymore” as I have been saying,…but this is a sign of reality, that eventually everything does come home to roost.
Just imagine what this means for all other CDSs out there, all “junk bonds”….imagine too that in the search for yield so many have been drawn into these riskier instruments…
To support Small and Medium business in France, they were offered 100K Euro loans at near zero rates. Many took them, but many were sensible and refused the extra debt…because they knew that it has to be repaid, and also there is no end insight for the problems that caused this situation. Repayment of the that debt is something that many investors, and advisors seem to have forgotten to factor in for many years. Even if the rates are low, it is still a debt,
The only resolution in the future will be increasing interest costs for companies looking to raise finance via their corporate bonds, which they will have to do once Governments stop lending/giving money away. The only question is when, not if, and this non performing CDS event is a canary in the coalmine.
The interview about the Europcar CEO made me read “Liars Poker” by Michael Lewis again…you probably should read it too, a classic true story from the 80’s.
“Because the World is Nuts!”
Welcome to the 15th 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter!
US 10 year just hit an all time low yield of MINUS 1.127%.
Yet the Dollar Index is right up near the high of the year.
Stocks…SP500 hit another record high on Friday and is still so close to making a new one..despite a lot of big stock drops in China and HK.
USDJPY is right in the middle of its range since year 1993, around 110.00.
Any move up or down will not pressure Gold too much in either direction, even though it looks ready to spring to 2,000, it could just as easily head for a 16 or 1700 handle first, so to my way of thinking, Gold is not really in play right now.
With Gold and Yen not really in important positions, the only pressure release has to be to make stocks rise, all money must flow that way.
If Dollar does drop of course Gold can rise, but as stocks rise, Yen is unlikely to strengthen massively, and therefore Gold is more likely to meander in its range.
Copper is at the highest on record since 1960.
Fuel is up, Brent in the $70’s, NatGas is up.
Even Arabica Coffee rose 8%…which means things are getting personal now!!
With inflation being suggested at 6% to 10%, does that suggest SP500 aims for 5,000??
Federal reserve meet on Wednesday…I guess we will know more then…
Good Luck this week, “Because the World Is Nuts!”
“Because the World is Nuts!”
Welcome to the 14th 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter!
So much going on this Sunday afternoon…had to do a summary…best to be aware of what is going on out there right now…
Bitcoin down 10%, Turkey banned its use, India may also do the same, in fact going further, may ban/criminalize holding any crypto.
Coinbase CFO sold 100% of his stock.
Pakistan erupting. Just last week France told its citizens to leave. Also Brits told to leave Afghanistan and Pakistan last week.
Russia to leave the international space station project and build its own.
USA just banned any Bitcoin transactions from Russian addresses.
Czech Republic expelled Russian diplomats
White House warns Russia of consequences if Navalny dies.
2 strong earthquakes hit Taiwan just at an important Astro event.
Heard last week many UK credit card holders having their limits dropped by 80%, heard of more cases today.
VIX was crushed into OPEX Friday, Dollar held down, FX price action “unusual” last week.
#BUYTHEDIP is Trending in UK Twitter….
Good Luck next week, “Because the World Is Nuts!”
Welcome to the 13th 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter!
So I took a whole month off from (anti)Social Media, no News, emails, bank reports, friends, colleagues, strangers……nada, nothing, nunca, nieko…basically I went into full lockdown mode. Just charts as my only indication that life was still operating out there!
Now I have surfaced, I opened Twitter, email, Whatsapp, Telegram, the newspapers and financial media….
All I can say is, this world is so screwed up that it’s a surprise there is anyone still here on this rock, if I was an Alien just arrived here I would be amazed that the economy is still operating. Governments in the US and Japan owning major proportions of their own stock markets, people in the UK being paid 80% of their salary to stay home, many others worldwide working from home instead of the office, cities empty, office blocks owned by pension funds not occupied, many businesses shut down. Then the Brexit effect in the UK is just astounding, especially the media silence about it…I won’t go into detail here but there are no positives that I can see, maybe I’m biased?!
Vaccine passports dead ahead, just to go to the pub or for coffee, also “clean and safe” building certificates. I imagine a whole new business area will be inspection of buildings, charging a fee for issue of a Safe Certificate, and fines for non compliance, fees for advice on how to comply, for how to manage the cleaning of a building to achieve and keep it at Compliance level…an echo of the British standards ISO, ANSI etc etc.
It now seems we will be forced to wear masks for a decade, especially during “Flu season”, so we might not get flu, or covid, but we will ingest micro plastics and probably end up on incubators, overloading the health system….I also learnt that injecting men with female hormones may reduce the impact of covid symptoms….I wonder what that will do to the sperm count, which I also read has declined 70% since the 1960s….which is probably good news, because food production capacity has declined 25% over recent years due to Global Warming and overpopulation, “winning”?
The Chief Medical officer in the UK happened to buy 40,000 shares in GlaxoSmithKline, just 2 weeks before the Government gave them a major contract to make vaccines. Also of interest was the fact the Glaxo plant is in Barnard Castle, where an ex government adviser Dominic Cummings is from, interesting coincidences…in fact this was a minor one compared to the billions of public contracts that have been dealt out to friends and family of connected people.
Biden released his tax plans, basically take more from anyone that has a job and give it to all those that don’t work and never want to work. Tax business more for daring to employ people in a venture that makes a profit, punish them for giving people the opportunity to work and make a better life.
France has looked at its crystal ball and sees an armed conflict within the next 10 years, so they are spending 20 billion on armaments, UK sees the need for more nuclear weapons, so they have increased the nuclear armaments limit to 260 from 220, because that will really scare the Russians and Americans who have 6,000 each.
Talking of Russia, they seem to be intent on scaring Ukraine into submission, so the French and the British, who cannot agree on anything, let alone the price of fish, loaded a French ship with French tanks and troops, and British armoured vehicles and troops, and sailed into Estonia to support Ukraine….all under the flag of NATO, so I suppose there was an American in charge to keep the atmosphere cordiale!
Speaking of the USA, Biden seems to think Harris is the President, and that he was in the Senate 120 years ago….no comment…and now he seriously wants to cancel student debt…so no doubt the people that have paid it off will want a reimbursement, and on it goes…and if Harris does become President, well, I dread to think….
Whilst we are talking North America, just as I was writing this article I heard that Canada will put Covid Positive people into “Covid Camps”, something which at first I thought was an April Fools joke until I checked it for myself!
We, the people, are being segregated like never before; brexit, no brexit, vaccinated and unvaccinated, Democrats, Republicans, now with the Vaccine Passport plans to go to the pub, coffee shop, sports stadiums etc. Even many that are vaccinated do not want the vaccine passport to be introduced. I believe and hope we can get a consensus against the Vaccine Passport plans. This crisis should already be over, lets not allow them to make permanent controls out of a temporary situation.
Freedom is being taken away so fast. South Korea just announced what they will call a Green Passport. Why Green? Maybe because they will extend this to become a social scorecard, just as they have in China, and they will then expand it to monitor your carbon footprint, and then your total social score will govern how far you can drive, when you can charge your car, etc etc…it is not going to stop unless the people stop it, but who can afford to stand up?
Exactly….the only people able to speak up and make a difference are either famous, wealthy, secure, or at the top of their profession or retired from it. One great example is Tony Robbins and I was sent this video which is 10 months old now but very relevant and worth 5 minutes of your time https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgP_Au5RZVw
I do not have the words to explain how it feels to be offline for a month and then to reopen the doors and be suddenly immersed, drowned by this deluge of information. Shocking, because it means that if one is usually consuming all this info everyday the constant barrage is too much, one cannot think about or focus on anything long enough to really achieve something. We can’t listen to the people we should be taking notice of, and we can’t be as useful to others if our own decisions are not our own but are a bucket load of inputs all mixed up and regurgitated without filter. In fact I think that I just described most mainstream newspapers and financial media today.
So anyway, the whole reason for a month offline was to focus on trading without news and without contact with anyone regarding trading.
How did I do? Did it make a difference?
Yes it did make a positive difference, especially in the frustratingly low volatility in the FX market this past month.
I will try a large degree of isolation again for another month, just with a small change or two to gradually see if I can control the inputs and fine tune my capacity to balance the inputs and output. This is one of the healthiest things we can all do.
“Because the World is Nuts”
“Because the World is Nuts!”
Welcome to the 12th 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter!
Welcome to 2021….
Some say that just because the earth has passed through some invisible line in the sky, things will be better from now on!
Well, it is possible, but it may take more than time to fix the issues we have now.
On the other hand, maybe time is the only thing that will make a difference…because throwing trillions of dollars, pounds euros and yen at the world is not changing much for most people.
Throwing darts, I mean needles/vaccines at people will take a very long time to hit the bullseye and score anything large enough to make a change.
So whilst “they” rearrange the deckchairs on our Titanic, all we can do is wait and see…we are powerless, as individuals, to effect any real change by pushing back against changes being forced upon us.
What we must do is to make changes to our own personal planet, and make sure all is well within our own personal solar system, build our own defenses. Those small changes will compound and make things better for everyone.
Look after yourselves, and those nearest to you, and remember,
“Covid, it might kill you, but don’t let it stop you from living”
Lets make this another great year here at Market Cycles Research.
Happy New Year and thank you all for following, for contributing, and just for being part of my solar system.
Welcome to the 11th 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter!
Its another special situation newsletter!
My previous thoughts on Brexit seem to be playing out as No Deal seems to be the situation as we end this week. That does not mean this will be the final outcome of course.
Many are saying “sell GBP”, Why is GBP not falling more”…indeed it might fall a lot more, but right now I think we need to start thinking ahead to what happens once Brexit is finally over.
My thoughts, in brief are that Europe had then better look out, because once one country leaves, and despite the obvious troubles, there will still be a Great Britain this time next year. But there might be more European countries thinking they also want out of Europe. The only way to stop that will be more laws, more regulation, and more more to be thrown around and printed in Europe to keep the weaker economies liquid.
Thats it, just a brief note this time!
Welcome to the 10th 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter!
Its been a while since we had a newsletter, and this one is a bit different, its a special situation newsletter!
Most sensible, thinking people and mostly everybody else too, including myself until right now, are/were of the opinion that there will be a deal.
It does seem impossible that these highly paid “leaders”, negotiating at the highest level could possibly fail to get a deal.
Surely, goes the thinking, they want and will achieve an agreement, a deal, because everybody in their right mind knows that is the solution. A harmonious, clean divorce is far better than the alternative.
Because the UK and Europe will still have to effectively live and work together. Neither country can run off into the sunset and pretend it never happened. So a deal is inevitable, at the 11th hour and 59 minutes the “Grownups” will surely take charge and a deal will be done.
However, here is the other view.
In 2018, Mrs May had a deal agreed with Europe. It was ok, not perfect but it would have satisfied enough people to make it acceptable. The deal was brought back to Parliament, and due to the Mays Government weak numbers in the House, it needed strong backing from the Opposition Labour Party.
Corbyn and co did not back the deal and it fell apart, and May lost her position, ousted by BoJo, and the UK has so far been a total circus under his “leadership”.
BoJo became Leader by promising to Get Brexit Done, he promised a good deal, a strong deal, he promised the world just to get votes, and it worked.
The problem now is, any “Deal” that can be done, will not be the deal that Brexiteers voted for, it will not even be as good as Mays deal, it will be a 3rd rate deal. It will not be the deal BoJo promised to all those ex Labour voters that lent him their votes. It will not be a deal at all, unless one side totally caves in during the next few days.
So, lets suppose that BoJo and Van Der Leyen do get a deal done. BoJo then has to bring it back to Parliament to ratify it.
He will need Labour support. But if Keir Starmers Labour Party vote for this watered down 3rd rate deal, he/they will be complicit to all the troubles that lay ahead. All the delays at ports, all the lack of goods arriving on time, all the inflation due to scarcity of goods. All the jobs that will be and already have been lost…and its not even Labours deal…but they would get the blame, and of the 9 millions Labour members, 5 Million wanted a strong Brexit, which this will not be.
So Labours best position will be to Abstain from the vote. To tell us that the deal is not good enough, it is not what people originally voted for, it is not what people want now. “It is just not good enough and we cannot endorse this deal”.
Boris Johnsons people will surely have gamed this play out. They can see this coming. So, the way I see it, BoJo needs to go to Brussels this week and make a fuss, walk away without a deal and blame Europe, tell us that the deal on the table is not worthy of his endorsement and its not good enough for the UK.
But we also have to remember that the IMB (Internal markets Bill) is going through the House of Lords right now. This is a clause that breaks International Law as it gives Parliament the right to break any treaty that it originally agrees upon. There is no way that Europe can agree a deal with the IMB being active. This is another reason why BoJo will likely have to walk out of Europe without a deal.
Of course, there are still days left until year end where a deal might subsequently be achieved, once everyone looks into the abyss and realises what a No Deal will mean, but right now, i see us getting a No deal this week.
Manage your risk accordingly.
Welcome to the “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter Number 9!
Good day Traders and Investors,
Finally back in fashion!
Day traders and home based active investors are finally well positioned! What used to be seen as “the best business in the world” but has suffered for at least a decade due to declining volatility and the increasing trend to “passive” investing is suddenly the best, and only way to trade!!
There is a Zerohedge article out today talking about the problems of large firms trying to transact in this iliquid environment, they quoted one Los Angeles-based portfolio manager of government securities, he said he feels like he’s always on the job.
“It sort of makes the week one long day instead of a series of separate days,” he said. “I have the work station set up here at home and I’m wandering past, checking on the market and having conversations with colleagues about 16 hours a day.”
Hahah!! Welcome to my world mate! This is how it is, we are all “day traders” now.
The relatively easy times of just buying fixed income, or putting clients into the same passive ETFs every month and then going out for lunch or a game of golf, those days are over!
After struggling for years with ever declining vol, smaller daily ranges, looking at the news calendar to see when there might be something that will cause volume, having to trade Asia one day, London the next, then having to wait until FOMC Wednesday, or NFP Friday to hope there will be a move…but still monitoring the charts almost 24 hours a day just to find a scalp…when eurusd might do a 20/30 pip range day…watching. calculating, trading more and more exotic crosses to make a buck…those times are over! And long may it last. I guess the depths of low FX volatility was when I saw the Financial Twitterari trading ZARJPY and retailers making trades in TRYILS.
Making a % return in a month that used to made in a week has been tough on the psyche, and it seemed that the only place with any “action” was in being an individual stock picker, and even there one had to look for news as a driver to find momentum, Reminds me of trading Australian mining stocks late 2007…funny how “cycles” repeat isn’t it! Thats why we at 6edges have the Market Cycles Research team and Cyclist on our side.
I know that in the low volatility environment, Hedge Funds and prop firms would, could, and did just increase their trade size based around their VAR, Value At Risk formulas. But they have unlimited deep pockets. Sometimes in recent years after days of nothing, there might be a sudden range expansion, and if you went into the markets with 10 times usual size and got caught the wrong way in a range expansion, it would take the rest of the month just to get back that drawdown. Plus Hedge Funds have a salary, Risk Managers, Analysts, Researchers, automated scripts, HFT tools, automated trading systems running in addition to ones own activity. They have IT support, CoLocated Servers, a higher level connected professional network…and I will say it again, deep pockets…
As Daytraders and self directed active investors, we have to be all of those things, and life has been very tough for a long time, so I love it when I see that guy with all of the above advantages complaining about 16 hour days and he has only just started!!!
I have always tried to look at the bigger picture, to look globally, in business and life, not just in trading, “je suis internationaliste” is a phrase I loved when first hearing it in my Business French language course many years ago. Looking Globally has been important to me even as the world has been shutting down over the past 18 months, as I have been highlighting on the MCR blog. I used to think “Globalist” was a good thing, but nowadays it has a controversial connotation, so maybe “Internationalist” is better. On the blog we have traders from 12 different countries. We attempt to swap information about trends, events, and activity in each place to try and see “whats coming”, to see what the next play might be, where is the next risk coming from.
It helps to understand “why” something is happening, or might happen before it occurs, so that when we have an event, when we hear a news announcement, we can trade accordingly, not be fearful or surprised by it, we know in advance how to position.
Even when it comes to market events such as Quad Witching if we know its coming we can prepare for it and position for a 2 or 3 day play, so that the event runs into our profit taking orders, rather than getting caught in and buffeted by the wake of options players at that key time.
We, The Hex’s, have been trading for a long time, but always want to learn more, to improve and to adapt as the environment constantly changes. We read a book “The Play Book” by Mike Bellafiore of SMB Capital, and subsequently signed up for the Trading DNA course. This is by far the best single investment in our trading business to date. Being given insights into how to “think” differently about trading strategies, how to define ones setups, and being directed to write down the strategies and setups rather than winging it, helps enormously. It helps communication between me and Billie too, at critical times in the market. Having defined setups that we can both relate to, study, and understand makes our “trading team” stronger and more efficient, and all that was pivotal in making last week the best trading week we have had for a long time, not in $ terms, but more importantly, as Mike and Steve at SMB teach, we had our best week of “process implementation” for a long time.
Get the “process” right and the $ success will follow.
Back to that Zerohedge article, poor Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank complaining about not getting his daily exercise by commuting…and piling on the calories…Welcome to our world mate! We have to be disciplined to exercise, to eat well, to sleep when we can, to manage our lives. This at times might seem very unsociable, we don’t drink, well hardly, because it impairs our performance, it disrupts sleep. We have to be very careful not to catch a cold, or flu, honestly we have noticed over the years that every time I go into a supermarket I was coming down with a bug..so now only Billie goes in the shops, I never ever do, since years. Billie has used antibacterial wipes on the shopping trolley, for a couple of years now to avoid infection. This is how we had to live to stay “in the game”, or maybe I should say “Trading In The Zone” to quote the late Mark Douglas, seeing as I already mentioned one key trading book author in this letter. We have to be like athletes.
Jim Reid goes on to talk about the technical difficulties he had with his phone line/connection…jeez…you try staying connected travelling and living across different countries without getting tied into lengthy internet contracts. One place we owned, the Spanish phone company never even got around to connecting a line to the building, it was 9 years old when we sold it and still didnt have a line!
So, when you see and hear and experience all the troubles in the world right now, all the virus related turmoil, just try to find a positive, we are finally on a more level playing field.
Looking ahead, the absolute key life blood that keeps markets open and flowing, that keeps supply chains going, electricity and water and all the essentials to life, oh must not forget internet service providers, is credit….that is why the Fed, and Bank of England and the SNB, BOJ, RBA, etc…are making interest rate cuts and facilitating USD Swaps, and why Governments are giving grants, and tax payment holidays, etc…its all because of the credit system, trying to stop people and businesses from walking away, from defaulting on their loans. This is why the US Dollar is so strong, as stocks drop, people have to sell, and that creates dollar demand, people get margin calls, people sell gold to pay them, it all creates dollar demand. Yes people in Australia for example also have to sell, but the size of the entire Aussie market is/was about A$1.9 trillion, the market cap of Apple alone is around USD $1.3 trillion, so that demand for Australian dollars is insignificant compared to the US dollar demand. Then there is the view from Martin Armstrong who will post a quote from:
“Europe has directed bullion dealers not to sell to individuals. You will probably see next week a proposal floated that asks Europeans to turn in their gold and convert it to digital under the claim this is patriotic. There are growing fears in Europe that they will cancel the paper currency and force everyone to go digital. This is why there have been runs on banks in the USA for cash dollars in New York, not for fear that the bank will fail, but a panic to get out of Euros.”
In 2008, the final kicker that knocked markets down was lack of confidence between banks. They became unwilling to lend to each other as the old adage of “return of your money being more important than return on your money” kicked in. Confidence crashed, stocks followed immediately. That’s why the financial powers that be are trying to keep the gear oil flowing through the economic engine & provided they can achieve that, things can keep going, markets can stay open, and confidence can return, the US dollar can relax from its heights and we can have a great 2 way market again, a traders market full of activity and opportunity, not a passive investors paradise…
Trade safe, keep it tight, stay active, there’s even more opportunity out there now.
Remember, you need 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!”
Cheers for now,
|Welcome to the “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter Number 8!|
Good day Traders and Investors,
We have Volatility! Not exactly for good reasons, but in this extreme volatile environment risk management is paramount. Yes its possible to make large gains, but its even easier to lose everything. The priority must be on preserving capital, reduce size, trade at the extremes, and only press hard when absolutely sure of your risk.
Cyclist said sometime ago “Stay short equities and long gold”. You only have to check the prices now to see just how right that statement was!
As US stock indices became more and more over extended, the whiplash back to some kind of mean has been swift and violent and extreme, and even the volatility in Gold has been difficult to deal with unless you are buying and holding from much lower, from the lows that Cyclist was adding at some months ago.
The Market Cycles research blog has been active, with many good interactions and information exchanges, keeping us all aware of the major themes and winds blowing through markets globally.
In the Trading Room, Hex has been providing his weekly Cable Report for FX traders and that provides some important levels to watch for and trade each week, Jay has shared some of his Options trades, and hopefully one day he will provide some instruction on how to interpret those amazing lines and curves on his charts! QuasiDB Dave shares his sentiment index information which adds to the colour and information flow, and you should check out his site and dynamic spreadsheet.
Cyclist has posted some great calls, here are a couple of examples below.
Health is a very important topic right now and something we should all be more aware of, and Cyclist has provided us with some very timely information regarding this.
I cannot finish this newsletter without mentioning my Wife, and Trading Partner/advisor/boss, Billie.
A one-time Chocaholic, she has now been totally sugar free for 100 days! No carbs, no sugar, totally Paleo or Keto, or whatever they call it..I wish I could be that good…
Thank you as always to all contributing members for making this a great place to have to support ones trading and investing activity, and maybe its becoming a health advisory center too!
Cheers for now,
Welcome to the “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter Number 7!
Good day Traders and Investors,
I have started this newsletter several times, and each time I began, world events moved so rapidly that it was out of date by the time I finished it, sometimes in the same morning!
You do not need me to rewrite the news, although some would say we need just that to find out what is really going on, and for that reason we have the Market Cycles Private Blog, but suffice to say the world really has gone nuts.
It is clear that if any problem, or potential problem appears on the horizon, the only response is to throw more money at it. Money by any means, just throw it out there, stop a market correction, and make inflation happen.
So far they are only succeeding at preventing a market correction, what that means for the future I do not want to suggest here for risk of sounding even more nuts than current situations and events.
Without a doubt, the Corona virus has thrown a spanner in the works of cyclical calculations. The only thing that is tracking the current markets well is sentiment, and that is really the buzz word now, everybody is looking at it. Stocks traders and FX traders, crude oil traders, all are united in this, just as they all became united in looking at how low the VIX volatility was, remember that?
In this environment it is good to know what cycle we are in. Usually “events” push markets in line with the cycles, and sometimes, rather like now, some markets are being skewed. Its a time to ask Cyclist what he is doing, as markets have always reverted back to what the cycles suggest, just sometimes they can skew a long way and we need to trade against the major cycle to catch the minors, or patiently sit out, all depends on how active or passively you trade.
Cyclist publishes his yearly outlook during January and February for stocks, dollar, FX, Gold and Bonds, available to all members. All his posts and activity are archived for members to refer back to as some long term forecasts can take a while to develop, and of course the point is to make money and protect your funds, not just to win or lose in the war of predictions as so many seem to focus on.
Join us now to secure this resource for the next 7/8ths of trading year ahead!
Welcome to the “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter Number 6!
2019 was a year where traders and investors in the US stock market did very well by doing absolutely nothing! Buy and Hold, passive investing proved to be a winning strategy. But that doesnt mean it was easy. To maximise the year, to navigate the swings, sit tight through the low volatility and to ignore the many calls for big crashes and expectations of black swans was a job for the mentally tough and strongly systemised traders. Those that could ignore what “should” happen, what “usually” happens, and instead deal with is actually happening right here and now, did very well, and fortunately some of our members have those skills and made some excellent trade calls.
Kudos has to go to Moon, FM, n0marko and Pict, just to name some that stand out. Also should mention VG,Tiago, Tarponking and Sanjay and Hertz with his “frequency” calculations!
Cyclists stand out call for me personally was on GBPJPY, a relatively big mover in a year of record lowest FX volatility since the end of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971. This call also aligned with my own views of buying GBP pairs, and Cyclists view assisted me in giving confidence to keep on buying despite the potential fundamental risks during the the political events of the year. Cyclist also made some very timely short calls in SPX which for a short term trader such as myself were very interesting, and for those with a long bias it may have assisted in taking profits and then looking for a time and price to get back in long. Gold, and specific miners stocks, GDX ETF and Crude were also called on.
That is where conversation and “flow” can help so much in forming a traders view. We dont have to agree on everything, this is not a signal service, but being surrounded by such professional & experienced traders views means we can each form our own view based around the important information that flows by, and interpret our charts and systems accordingly as flow and ideas and comments interact with price and chart action.
Thank you to all members that contributed with calls, comments, information and encouragement, both “front of house” and behind the scenes. Please may there be much more of the same during the 2020 session!
Free access for life continues for contributing and founding members, and we are keeping open the “free trial” window for new and non contributing members for now, so please forward this newsletter to any traders and investors that you know who may be interested in benefiting from our community. This information portal will become even more essential as the world goes nuttier!
All the best for a great 2020,
Welcome to the “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter Number 5!
New highs in the US indices, new lows in Volatility, FX Volatility basically flatlined.
Makes for a very slow and boring way to make a living in this current market environment. They say that good trading should not be exciting…but good FX trading also needs volatility, decent daily ranges of at least 0.75%. A two way market is best too, not just a “drift dive” which might be great if you are a scuba diver but not when trying to get into a trade!
Despite the markets being on the slow side, some members have done very well to ignore any pessimism, and to get long SPX and stay long in a trend following manner, kudos to those guys, I wish I had their patience.
Cyclist is partially back, off and on depending on internet connectivity, so we are still OFFERING FREE ACCESS! And we are actively interested in any new member that wishes to contribute to our trade/chat room, to increase the daily flow and colour provided.
Highlights for the past month in the Trade Room
yes after a substantial pullback we might see a run up to the 3500 with all that QE money coming into the market.
From what I’m gathering the output from the solar panels vary greatly all the time.
The solar industries are not calculating solar minimum coming up in the world . The western nations are already experiencing less output and it is a negative environmentally wise.
The lows in gold are in IMO, after the expected meltup a la 1929 in the main markets ,we could see ,doesn’t have to be, a retest of the lows in the PM stocks at the end of the November month
On the private blog, Hex used a pic of the month showing a Black Swan, and her Cygnets, suggesting there are so many possible market killing, but volatility increasing events breeding out there, so far none of them have grown up to be a threat but soon they will reach their “terrible teens” and that might be when we get some activity! Take care out there!
Current members please forward this email to your friends, foes, people you have lost touch with and need a reason to reconnect, or anyone else that might be interested! Do them a good turn and give them FREE ACCESS!
Wishing you a good month ahead,
Welcome to the “Because the World is Nuts!” newsletter Number 4!
The entire world is exhausted by the news. Every country has its political class in a total mess and without power to govern freely. Maybe that’s a good thing, I really don’t want to get into that because 50% of readers will have an opposing view, and all that matters is what the markets think, and making sure we are on the right side of what they are saying.
The only thing I will say is regarding Brexit in the UK. What will probably happen now is, Boris Johnson will keep on insisting on the 31st October as the Brexit date, right up until as near to midnight as he can. Then he will make a speech, he will appear frustrated and impassioned as he calls on the Brexiteers to not take to the streets a la Barcelona, HK, Lebanon….he will call on the disillusioned to give him a bit more time to deliver Brexit, and call on the people to demonstrate their frustrations, not in the streets but at the ballot box in a General Election.
One other thing I want to say whilst I have your attention and before I fall off my soap box.
FREE ACCESS UNTIL DECEMBER!
Yes that’s right. As Cyclist is currently away we are opening up the Trade Room to anyone that wants to look in, join up and contribute to our group of traders and investors.
Tell you friends, tell your Mums, tell your pets. Just enter your email address at http://www.6edges.net and I will add you to Slack and you can have at least a few weeks to see what goes on. Its not a high volume high activity place, but its quality over quantity…come and see…
Cyclists big picture views are currently long physical gold, and long biased GBPJPY as it makes a multi month base, but come and find out his recent views on spot Gold, Silver and Miners before its too late to take action.
For more recent updates, market information and activity join us! Click Below to Sign Up.
SIgn up to receive immediate updates from Cyclist and other expert members of our community via the www.6edges.net live Trading Room
Current members please forward this email to your friends, foes, people you have lost touch with and need a reason to reconnect, fellow Traders and Investors, and anyone else that might be interested!
Do them a good turn and give them FREE ACCESS!
Wishing you a good month ahead,
We made it to the third 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!” activity update! September….its only the 24th but it feels like its been about 6 weeks long!Geopolitics have been chaotic, there is no other way to describe it, there is not a single theme. The only thing that unites every major country right now is political uncertainty, and economy wise they are all on the cusp.
One way I had chaos theory explained to me was to imagine two roulette wheels placed side by side. The steel ball is balanced right on the join between them. The ball is in a totally unstable situation, and we have no idea what will happen, all we know is, the ball cannot stay where it is much longer….
Its Because the World is Nuts that people join our site. Cyclist is way ahead of Global cycles, geopolitics, and how events can affect the markets you trade.
Just wanted to talk a little about our service. Its not a place for high volume trade signals, or idle chat for the sake of saying something. If the markets are quiet , we are quiet. Some members use our private blogger site to share longer posts about their thoughts on the markets & this month US debt has been topical, and probably will be again at some point in the future!
Cyclists views have not changed. Long physical gold, short spot gold from $1550, flat on GDX and long biased GBPJPY as it makes a multi month base.
Below are a few recent comments from members in trade room.
Futures soaring right now
All indices up 1%
Massive short squeeze imo. Everyone and their mother was bearish.Broke out of 2950 resistance and Darvas box
Linda Raschke says put/call ratio told her to get long on the 4th and there is “more gas in the tank”, Similar to FMs idea.
Hertz shared a proprietary chart on miner AUY This Gann cycle is one of his simplest methods.
Tarponking buying Bitcoin
Started scaling in gbtc at the close.
For more recent updates, market information and activity join us!
SIgn up to receive immediate updates from Cyclist and other expert members of our community via the 6edges.net live Trading Room
Welcome to the second 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!” activity update!
Even “Walls of Money” crumble against “Cycles”
So, August is finally over…seemed like a very long month…too damn hot, markets were crazy, geopolitics totally mental, and did I say too damn hot?
Had a couple of very interesting phone calls last month. One with somebody from an engineering firm in the UK and another from a house building firm, also UK.
The first told me in no uncertain terms, “we are headed for a terrible recession, and some say we are already in it”
They cited the automotive industry, brexit, consumer debt. The German slowdown into recession is also a big factor.
The most surprising thing was to be told that outside all supermarkets now are Food Banks, with shopping lists telling people what they need you to buy for them…this is a very affluent area where for example, they recently opened a Waitrose…that will mean more to British readers but basically its an upper crust supermarket, like a deli but bigger maybe.
The second told me they are selling up. Its a listed firm which is basically a decent family business that became successful due to clever financial engineering in a booming government sponsored housing market and they are selling out to, a much larger listed firm. The reason is that their main activity has become “build to rent”, building housing for housing corporations, local councils, and they bargain hard on price and so its a not very profitable niche, but the only one left right now as building small private estates on spec is no longer a viable business in the UK, due to many factors such as high land prices, property taxes, personal indebtedness, and of course a topping out housing market.
Despite being hot, I did learn a lot in August. I learnt that I need to listen more. Listen to Cyclist and listen to other members here.
During every day I am in touch with a couple of people…ex floor traders that have been in the FX business for 35 years…and wow they can trade…I have learnt a lot from these guys other recent years. And so when they both tell me, from different inside sources, that their connections tell them that there is a “wall of money” below EURUSD, and on top of DXY, all my math and and thoughts of “cycles” or what Cyclist has said, is just ignored. I looked only at buying the Euro, looking for a surge up on “End of Month Flows” I was short USDCHF too, expecting a risk off collapse that never came. So I turned a good month into a mediocre one, all in that final couple of days.
Looking back through the archive of August, of Cyclist posts, he was consistent in his views and described in real time what he expected, and it all played it as prescribed. From FX to SPX, to the Gold/Silver ratio.
So the key lesson is, trade the technicals, be aware of the fundamentals. Listen to Cyclist, and dont rely on “whispers” to give you a windfall. Even “walls of money” crumble against “Cycles”.
http://www.6edges.net continues to grow and highlight trading opportunities, we have solid market discussions and carefully navigate through todays markets as a supportive, active community. Please consider joining us to receive timely market information.
Here are some recent highlights.
Cyclist 4th August
There is a historic change about to happen what has never happened before with the Negative interest rate universe.This will cause the annihilation of the pension funds and the bankruptcy of nations when interest rates are going up ,if there are any tradable bonds left, in a liquidity crisis.The Fed will not be able to stem the tide.The holders of bonds denominated with a negative coupon will be wiped out. As it has essentially no value.
I think governments are well aware of it ,instead of printing currency they print bonds that will have no value and are forcing pension funds to buy them for “safety” reason, how diabolical can one get.
.The reason Trump wants to see 0 or better yet negative interest rates ,to wipe out the debt,I think the Asians are getting wise from what I hear.The feeling is that the stock markets might hit the Stratosphere what I personally doubt while bondholders are being set up for holding the bag. It is a Mug’s game that will make gold shine or any other commodity asset.
Presently interest rates are going through a black hole while obliterating the principal in the process.
Sanjay August 12th I am again late by 1 day. So far as I can read the astro-charts, no major upside movement is expected in Oil. It is “Sell on Rise” market for Oil. On the other hand, Mars aspecting Jupiter may result in further upside in Gold, Silver and Platinum.
Gold and precious metals are in “Buy on Dips” market and likely to remain so till September
FM August 19th
Definitely not a place to short imo. Lots of volume ratios giving bullish signals last week Wednesday and Friday. Not out of the woods just yet though.
Hex August 26th
Hi @Cyclist I have been asked to ask if that is the reversal in gold, short mode now? Thanks, Hex.
Cyclist August 26th
Hex ,I am only in physical gold .I am standing aside with gold/silver stocks.I did buy physical Platinum.
Several members discussed Bitcoin, brokers and price levels, also how much to hold as a % of a portfolio, very interesting but its too soon to make this information public.
August 30th MA
You were also right about Gold/Silver Ratio thanks again Cyclist!
SIgn up to receive immediate updates from Cyclist and other expert members of our community via the 6edges.net live Trading Room
19th August 2019
Welcome to the very first 6edges.net “Because the World is Nuts!” activity update!
It’s lively times in the 6edges forums.
Cyclist is increasing his activity as market volatility rises.
Here are some recent highlights.
Cyclist on gold & silver miners
FYI ,I have been exiting gold and silver stocks ,the cycle has topped out
Cyclist on stocks
I think the top will be in, the negative interest rates will eventually bring house of cards down .people will flee the bond market to seek shelter in commodities. It is going to get crazy.
Cyclist on Forex
Hex ,I mentioned to Hammond that GBP will make a major low in August in a multi month cycle against the Yen and the Euro as well.
Questions for Cyclist not yet answered……
Cyclist, it looks like we got close to your target on the Dow today to reshort. Are you still holding off?
There looks like a gap play on corn, limit order, they will wash the stops here I believe and set up a long swing IMHO.
Consider becoming a member to get real time updates and participate in live conversation with Cyclist and currently 29 active experienced investors and traders.
Share this update with your network
GOLD SILVER CURRENCIES S&P VIX OIL DOLLAR INTEREST RATES COMMODITIES
MARKET CYCLES EDUCATION STUDY LEARN PROFIT